Kentucky Derby Controversy

Maximum Security passed the finish line just barely ahead of Country House in the 154^th Kentucky Derby; but was disqualified after 20 minutes of reviewing the tape to see if Maximum Security fouled other horses. Who really won? WE DID because it took Maximum Security 123.9 seconds to cross the finish line, and Country House was even slower.

Evolutionists say that small evolutionary changes (micro-evolution) can build up over long periods of time WITHOUT LIMIT to produce major changes (macro-evolution). For 20 years, we have said that the Kentucky Derby has proved that notion to be false. ¹

This was the 154^th Kentucky Derby; but after 30 years, the distance of the track was changed to 1¼ miles, so this was actually the 124^th Derby at the modern distance. For the past 124 years, breeders have been trying to breed horses that can run 1¼ miles faster than any other 3-year-old horse. They are highly motivated because “Country House won the mile-and-a-quarter race and collected a $1.86 million check for his owners.” ²

The Kentucky Derby is a real scientific experiment. The same age horses (3 years old) race the same distance (1¼ miles) on the same track (Churchill Downs) at the same time of year (the first Saturday in May). This experiment has been repeated 124 times.

Data from the first 60 years best fits a straight line starting at 129.8 seconds decreasing by 0.126 seconds per year down to 122.2 seconds. The winning times from the last 64 years best fit a straight line starting at 121.7 seconds, increasing by 0.0147 seconds per year, ending at 122.6 seconds. Horses haven’t gotten faster in the last 64 years. The Kentucky Derby Limit of 122 seconds +/- 2 seconds was reached 64 years ago. It isn’t surprising that Country House took 124 seconds.

Linear Extrapolation

Evolutionists sometimes fail to realize that linear extrapolations aren’t always valid. They use current rates of erosion, for example, to extrapolate back in time. At some point, linear extrapolations bend and are no longer straight.

Linear extrapolation based on the first 60 years of the modern Kentucky Derby predicts that the 2019 Kentucky Derby winning time should have been 114.6 seconds. The extrapolation does not hold because the Kentucky Derby Limit has been reached, and the line bent. Every extrapolation of change fails at some point, therefore conclusions based on extrapolations should be viewed with healthy skepticism. This is true for everything from stock prices to fuel economy. Things never continue to change at the same rate.

Stability is more reliable than extrapolation. Things that haven’t changed for years aren’t likely to change in the future—unless something forces them to change.

Predictions

Often, after a new fossil has been discovered, evolutionists claim that the theory of evolution “predicted” that such a fossil would be discovered. A prediction made after the fact isn’t really a prediction—it is a biased interpretation. Often, the theory has to be changed after the fact to accommodate the “prediction.”

Twenty years ago, we said that the winning Kentucky Derby Time would be 120 to 124 seconds from that date forward. We have been right for the past 20 years. Horses have evolved to run as fast as they can. They have reached the limit proving that there is a limit to evolution. We feel confident in that prediction because it is based on stability, not questionable extrapolation.

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Footnotes:

¹ Disclosure, June 1999, “The Kentucky Derby Limit”
² https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/04/sports/kentucky-derby-live.html